8.5 Assignment 8

Prepare a hazard risk analysis for at least one CBG with a residential population in the Bay Area (though you are welcome to analyze multiple CBGs) that is exposed to coastal flooding, as evident from Our Coast Our Future. You are welcome to include as many hazard dimensions as you’d like (including replicating other analyses from this chapter), but at a minimum, conduct the following analysis of coastal flood risk:

• Download at least the 15 hazard scenarios we collected in Section 8.1 from OCOF, for the extent of your study area.
• Once you’ve collected this hazard data for each CBG (1 or more) in your study area, then use EMFAC2017 (as we used in Section 7.1) to collect vehicle counts in the county that includes your study area. Based on the county-level trend for vehicle counts overall between 2020-2050, then collect the latest available ACS data about vehicle ownership in your specific study area and produce an estimate of the vehicle ownership count in your study area from 2020-2050. You are also encouraged (but not required) to conduct the remaining steps for not just all vehicles, but also for specifically vehicles that are the single vehicle owned by a household (presenting additional cascading impacts should the vehicle be damaged).
• Use OpenStreetMap data to retrieve building footprints for your study area. Allocate vehicles to each building; you can assume an equal allocation, or use other available information to make a better inference about which buildings are likely to have fewer or more vehicles. Calculate average depth for each building under each of your hazard scenarios, and you will assume that vehicles stored in or near those buildings at ground level are subject to the same flood exposure (and that this assignment of exposure based on building footprints does not change over the study period).
• Collect vulnerability data on the relationship between flood depth and vehicle damage. Hint: an ideal dataset can be found from the same source we found vulnerability data in Section 8.3. Estimate % vehicle damage for individual vehicles using this vulnerability data.
• Estimate average annualized loss, in $ vehicle damages, for your study area, during the study period, 2020-2050. You are encouraged to make additional assumptions, including simplifying assumptions (e.g. estimates of average vehicle $ value, % of vehicles that will be exposed to the hazard at the onset, % of vehicles that are likely to be moved away from the hazard exposure with advance warning) and explain your reasoning.
• Comment on your results.